Welcome to the 2nd edition of Quilling!
Here’s what’s inside this edition:
- Market Kya Lagta Hai: The impact of Trump’s tariff shock, FII-DII dynamics & RBI’s outlook
- Dil Se Paisa: Why gold remains a must-watch asset – personal finance insights with a detailed article link
- Inside Edge: Godfrey Phillips’ surprising quarter and the tobacco sector’s paradox
- Charts pe Charcha: Weekly gold highs, TVS Motor’s breakout, & NSDL’s rare IPO volume surge
- Brain ka Bazaar: The quiz question on India’s oldest incorporated and listed company
Market Kya Lagta Hai
Tariff Tantrums
Donald Trump’s imposition of an additional 25% tariff on India, focused on continued Russian oil imports, has made India one of the most heavily taxed U.S. trade partners. India has firmly rejected this move as “unreasonable.”
The levy is set to take effect on August 27 but with a possible caveat: if Russia adjusts its stance in line with U.S. expectations on Ukraine, the tariff may be reconsidered. A U.S. delegation visiting New Delhi on August 25 for trade talks suggests this issue is still fluid, leaving room for a potential reversal or easing.
FII-DII Imbalance
FIIs have sold aggressively, offloading ₹14,000 crore in cash in just the first eight days of August. However, they became net buyers on Friday, August 8, for the first time since July 18. The rupee weakened further, breaching all-time lows near ₹87.98 against the dollar. Meanwhile, DIIs have absorbed much of this selling, buying close to ₹36,000 crore, aided by strong retail participation.
Market Outlook
The Nifty 50 suffered its sixth straight weekly loss, the longest such streak since the massive Covid fall in 2020. Yet, the cumulative decline of just above 5% is moderate enough to avoid panic. Broader market indices have also softened, reflecting cautious sentiment during a mixed earnings season.
RBI Status Quo
The Reserve Bank of India kept repo rates steady at 5.5%, noting that previous rate cuts are still filtering through the economy. The FY26 inflation forecast was revised down to 3.1%, but inflation is expected to breach 4% in Q4 due to base effects. Many economists expect the RBI to consider cutting rates only if growth risks intensify, especially from uncertain trade dynamics.
Outlook
Near term markets may remain range-bound with a slight negative bias. Key upside triggers include a possible reversal of the 25% tariff and renewed FII buying. With markets down roughly 5% from recent peaks, this appears more a healthy correction than cause for alarm. Also, precious metals like gold and silver hover near all-time highs. My next article explores what that means for investors.
Dil Se Paisa | Any impact of probable Gold revaluation by US Fed?
Gold has always been a cornerstone in many portfolios, prized for its ability to hedge inflation, currency risk, and uncertainty. Recent global events and monetary policies suggest gold’s importance could grow, especially if potential revaluations of U.S. gold reserves actually materialize.
For personal finance, gold’s allure lies in its ability to provide diversification and stability amid market volatility. But investing in gold requires thoughtful balancing of benefits like liquidity and inflation protection against volatility and tax implications.
Curious about what this means for your portfolio? Check out the detailed take in this article where I delve beyond the headlines with practical insights.
Is Gold likely to get doubled from here?
·
8 August 2025
What if, one morning, gold prices suddenly jumped, the dollar’s value shifted, and central banks worldwide moved to adjust their reserves?
Inside Edge
When Godfrey Phillips Lit Up the Stock Market
While many stocks were struggling, Godfrey Phillips India Ltd. stood out with a striking performance – a 56% YoY profit jump and a 2:1 bonus share issue catalyzed a rally to all-time highs.
Part of the iconic Modi Enterprises and manufacturing big brands like Four Square, Red & White, and Marlboro (under license), Godfrey Phillips shines despite a sector grappling with health and regulatory challenges. The tobacco sector’s paradox lies in its massive economic footprint amid societal concerns, making this story uniquely insightful.
When Godfrey Phillips Lit Up the Stock Market
·
7 August 2025
While most of the stocks were falling day after day, one company was literally smoking the competition (and I mean that quite literally).
Charts pe Charcha
Interesting charts highlighting recent moves and volume trends — purely informational, no recommendations.
Gold (MCX Futures Weekly Chart): At All-Time High in INR
Gold futures on MCX have surged to fresh all-time highs on the weekly timeframe, reflecting global safe-haven demand and currency factors amid ongoing macro uncertainties.
TVS Motor Company: Technical Breakout Observed
TVS Motor shares recently cleared a critical resistance level with accompanying volume support, indicating a potential shift in market attention towards this stock.
NSDL – Rare Post-IPO Volume Dynamics
NSDL’s listing was marked by an unusual volume pattern. Day 2 saw higher volume than the IPO day, and day 3 was higher still. Combined with strong price gains, this atypical volume trend raises questions: is a correction due, or is momentum still building?
Brain ka Bazaar #2
POLL
Which is the oldest incorporated Indian company that is still publicly listed and actively trading on stock exchanges today?
Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation
Tata Steel
HUL
ITC
Last week’s correct answer is September. Really happy to see 50% respondents had the right answer.
See you next week!
Disclaimer: I am not a registered SEBI Research Analyst and none of the constituent of this newslettter should be construed as a recommendation. This should be consumed solely for education purposes.